Albany County fire season could ‘escalate’ in July, August
State Forester Bill Crapser provides insight into Albany County’s fire season, pointing to environmental and recreational factors.
Albany County currently faces only a minor drought, but persistent hot, dry weather could mean a fiery July.
Major fires are burning in several Mountain West states, but southeast Wyoming has been luckier than most so far.
“From a state-wide perspective, most of the area is looking at an average fire season for June and escalating into more intensity through July and August,” State Forester Bill Crapser said. “The southeast corner of the state has had a lot more moisture than the rest of the state, so that will slow up the fire season a little bit. But if this hot, dry weather persists, that can turn around pretty quick.”
Experts consider many factors to predict the intensity of the upcoming fire season, including human behavior, ecological factors and historical and current data and trends.
As snowpack amounts have decreased in recent years, soil and plant life has dried out at faster rates, allowing for increasing intensity of fire seasons in alpine and rangeland regions.
“Snowfall in our high-elevation forests is lower now than in past decades, and summers are hotter. The changes convert trees into dry fuel, primed and ready to burn,” says Bryan Shuman, a professor in the University of Wyoming Department of Geology and Geophysics in a recent UW news publication. UW Faculty Member Contributes to Study of Unprecedented Rocky Mountain Subalpine Wildfires. “With less snow now, the fire season lasts longer than before. When areas burn, the fires are bigger. They can burn longer.”
U.S. Drought Monitor data shows that most of Albany County is abnormally dry, while the northern tip of the county is experiencing a moderate drought.
“Northern Albany County is predicted to see above average fire activity,” Crapser said. “The southern end of Albany County probably will have what we call an average year. Although you need to remember last year the prediction was for an average year and we ended up with the Mullen Fire.”
Although the Mullen Fire ended in November 2020, the burn scars of that 176,878-acre fire will provide some protection to the previously affected areas, where the presence of burnable vegetation is scarce.
“The other thing we’re seeing — a big trend over the last ten years — is an increase in human-caused fires and overall number of fires,” Crapser said. “When it starts getting hot and dry, that’s especially concerning with the number of people we have in the woods and wildlands areas recreating.”
Human-caused fires in the Rocky Mountain region more than doubled from 2019 to 2020, from 948 to 2,063 fires, according to National Interagency Fire Center data.
Currently, there are no fire restrictions in Albany County.
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