Wildfires in the west are already above average this year, but not in Wyoming

State officials say significant wildfire potential remains, and will likely worsen through July and August.

As 2022 progresses, the number of wildfires and burned acreage across the United States, particularly the west, has already exceeded decadal averages. The potential for significant wildland fires nationwide is expected to increase through July, August and September.

According to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), 2022 is already well above the 10-year average for number of wildfires and number of acres burned. By the end of June, more than 33,000 wildfires had burned a total of 3.62 million acres across the nation, with most activity occurring in western states.  

These numbers are significantly larger than those of last decade, which has seen an average of about 25,000 wildfires burning 1.4 million acres each year between January 1 and June 30.

Since the mid-1980s, wildfire activity has seen a significant and sustained increase in the western United States. Many wildfires occur naturally and are an important factor in maintaining the long-term health of forest, shrubland and grassland ecosystems, but changing wildfire patterns threaten to compromise the status quo. Several studies have attributed increasing wildfire season length, wildfire frequency, and burned area to climate change.

Still, as the summer season progresses, weather conditions across Mountain West states are expected to worsen, with precipitation deficits and increased temperatures and drought. Currently, numerous large wildfires are active in Arizona, Utah, New Mexico and Nevada.

In Wyoming, early predictions were comparable to those of other western states, indicating an above average fire season and above average potentials for large fires starting in June, said Wyoming State Forester Bill Crapser.

“Right now the prediction is a busy, active fire season,” Crapser said. “But this may change drastically depending on the occurrence of one large storm front or the absence of one.”

In fact, unanticipated precipitation explains Wyoming’s slow June.

Despite predictions suggesting an above average fire season in Mountain West states, Wyoming’s fire season has seen a slow start, with no current fires and no reports of large fires in 2022. The absence of June wildfires in Wyoming was unexpected, Crapser said.

“It was predicted that June, particularly in the Black Hills and northern region, was going to be fairly active with fires,” he said.

Expert reports attribute this delay to the cooler and wetter weather seen in much of the state throughout May and June. Although certain regions in Wyoming and the Front Range saw “a drier than normal pattern” in March and April, leading to precipitation deficits in early spring, late snowfall in May delivered much needed precipitation.

 “The northern area was doing quite poorly but late spring precipitation helped the (drought) situation considerably,” said Tony Bergantino, director of Water Resources Data System and Wyoming State Climate Office.

According to Predictive Services — an NIFC program for anticipating significant fire activity and determining resource allocation — the cooler and wetter conditions in June have suppressed early-season fires in Wyoming and other northern states, so fuel will likely dry and cure throughout July. By August, fire activity will increase, and is expected to be above average through September.

Above average wildfire potentials are expected throughout Wyoming, with increasing intensity throughout the later summer months. According to Predictive Services, some regions are showing signs of worse fire conditions.

“Currently the southern part of the state is showing more of a precipitation deficit,” Bergantino said.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate to severe drought across the southeast portion of the state with some extreme drought in the southwest, particularly in Lincoln County. Most of Albany County is experiencing moderate drought.

“The southeastern part of the state is still very dry, and if predictions hold, we can expect more late-season fires state-wide,” Crapser said.

Generally, early fire activity in northeast Wyoming progresses westward with more large fires in August and September, Crapser said. However, this is not always the case, such as with the 2020 Mullen Fire which lasted until November, burning over 170,000 acres of the Medicine Bow National Forest in southeast Wyoming.

Despite the current absence of wildfires in Wyoming, The State Forestry Division is preparing local fire departments and forest service engine crews, training and refreshing Helitack crews, and working on fuel mitigation projects in preparation for increased fire activity.

Wildfire potential predictions are important for planning and distributing adequate resources to local, state and federal agencies, Crapser said. 

“State Forestry is doing everything so everybody is as prepared as you can be for going into a fire season,” he said.

This story is supported by a grant through Wyoming EPSCoR and the National Science Foundation.